Kemi Badenoch Analysis

Kevan James

January 7, 2025

Kemi Badenoch has now been Conservative party leader for longer than Liz Truss was, which is quite remarkable. It is so not merely because she has outlasted Truss, but for the speed of the passage of time.

Which does focus the lens of scrutiny on her, mostly because of what seems to be a lack of opposition to Sir Kier Starmer and Labour, who, with the best will in the world, have not covered themselves in glory since taking office last July.

It’s true she has avoided making grandiose statements and this is not a bad thing. Far too often have party leaders and MPs generally done just that and such comments have often come back to haunt them.

Robert Jenrick for example, staked his leadership campaign on frequent use of social media to claim he will take the UK out of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) in order to stop small boats crossing the channel, the illegal entry to the UK that comes with them and start deporting such people.

The immediate question is deport to where? Most of these illegal entrants have no ID and no country (other than Rwanda) has agreed to take them. France certainly won’t so simply stating he will deport them doesn’t cut it. Neither, if one actually looks, does the ECHR or the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg (ECtHR) prevent deportations.

Other than not ruling out leaving the ECHR, Badenoch has been wisely neutral on this issue, among others.

Her stance has been to suggest policies will be carefully thought out and planned properly, which seems to me to be rather sensible. There are however, three flaws with this.

The first is the apparent assumption that the next General Election (GE) won’t happen until 2029. Given their performance thus far, there is little to suggest that the Starmer-led Labour government – or whoever takes his place should he be deposed - will not collapse in disarray before then, leading to an early GE. That could happen at any time and when such events do happen, as they have both here in the UK and elsewhere, they can be sudden and unexpected. There needs to be some readiness, just in case.

The second aspect is how much damage will be done by Labour; what kind of job will the next PM have? It is likely to be immense and whoever takes over is going to find huge problems awaiting them. The longer Labour remain in office, the greater the task awaits their successors.

The third problem Badenoch faces is her own MPs.

The Tories are famous for self-destruction, having done so numerous times in the past, most notably with Margaret Thatcher. That episode continued throughout the John Major years and culminated in Tony Blair’s 1997 election win and 13 years of Labour – the first time ever Labour had governed for more than one full term and the UK is seeing the fruits of Blairism now.

Never ones to learn the lessons of the past, Tory MPs were at it again from the moment David Cameron stepped down in 2016. Regardless of their ability, capability, suitability or otherwise, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak all had to contend with plotting behind their backs. And this will undoubtedly be a headache for Kemi Badenoch.

Some Tories are already said to be speculating about Badenoch’s potential downfall. The Conservative Home website recently ran an opinion piece with the blunt headline ‘How Long Does Badenoch Have?’

Sir Iain Duncan Smith, the only other current Tory MP to have been leader of the opposition, is known to be somewhat irritated.

Quoted in a report by The Telegraph, he said, “The historic problem with the Conservative Party is that some think there is a magic, immediate way in which you become the prime minister in waiting as soon as you become leader. Too often the tolerance of some Tory MPs and commentators is pretty low.

“Every Tory leader has gone through this. The small number of people questioning her now, are no different from the people who were saying Margaret Thatcher was a bad choice and would lead us to defeat when she first became leader.

“I think some colleagues inclined to moan need to focus on the real target, which is Labour.”

His warning to colleagues is that: “The Conservative Party has got to look into its soul and ask itself, does it want to march to oblivion by pursuing personal vendettas or will it understand the steep climb back to credibility is a long haul. The only way back after the 2024 deluge is to dig deep and stay together.”

His advice to Badenoch is to spend this year concentrating on holding Starmer to account, demonstrating competence and winning back trust, and also to avoid getting involved in spats with Nigel Farage, who “needs to be inciting a row all the time”.

Farage and Reform are of course, the banana skin waiting for any Tory leader and Badenoch has already fallen in to a neat trap laid by them.

Many commentators have overlooked the fact that the row over membership figures arose only because Reform projected their numbers on to the front of Tory HQ. This was a blatantly provocative act - did they really expect there not to be some kind of pushback? Unwisely, Badenoch fell for it.

On top of that, there is continued speculation over certain Tory MPs defecting to Reform, among them are often named Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman. Yet all current Tory MPs – yes, including Badenoch herself, despite not becoming an MP until 2017 – are tainted by their time in government and are perceived as failures. Why would Reform want them? There is also the strong possibility that those seats would then be lost by Reform to the Conservatives at the next GE.

Nigel Farage and Reform need to spend their energy directing attacks at Labour, who are the real enemy.

Badenoch knows fine well that there is huge pressure from some within her party to announce detailed policies on the big issues, such as migration, sooner rather than later in order to staunch the flow of support to Reform UK.

She is adamant she will not be rushed, though, and will instead announce a series of policy commissions to effectively start formulating the 2029 manifesto. She will make a series of speeches setting out the broad direction of travel, as she did with migration in November when she said her “core principles” would include a strict numerical cap on net migration, albeit without saying what that number would be.

As strange as it might seem however, there is scope for Badenoch to outflank Reform on migration, who have been strident on what they want to do, but extraordinarily light on how they will do it.

Kemi Badenoch has not done too badly thus far, although she has not been outstanding either. Being party leader and possibly Prime Minister is a role she will have to grow into and she needs a little time. The Tory leader must be given breathing space by her party, and by others.

If Tory MPs are not going to give that time to her, they do not deserve to be Tory MPs.

Image - AFP via The Telegraph

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